Project LINK Meeting
October31 - November 2, 2005

Global Economic Outlook

DOMESTIC POLICIES AND INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT
 
Prepared by
Economic Monitoring and Assessment Unit
United Nations/Department of Economic and Social Affairs




 
Real Government Consumption, local currency


 ———————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————
                                 |  2003    2004    2005    2006    2007    2008  | Mean   |
 ———————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————
                                 |              ***  Annual growth rates  ***              |
   Industrialized countries      |                                                         |
 Canada                          |    2.9     2.7     3.1     3.9     3.9     3.8 |    3.4 |
 France                          |    0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1 |    0.1 |
 Germany                         |    0.1    -1.6    -0.8     0.2     0.2     0.3 |   -0.3 |
 Italy                           |    2.3     0.7     1.0     1.2     0.9     1.0 |    1.2 |
 Japan                           |    1.2     2.7     1.6     1.0     0.3     0.2 |    1.2 |
 U.K.                            |    4.5     2.6     1.7     2.5     2.5     2.5 |    2.7 |
 U.S.                            |    2.8     2.0     2.0     1.9     1.4     1.3 |    1.9 |
 Austria                         |    1.7     1.0     0.8     0.8     0.0     0.0 |    0.7 |
 Belgium                         |    2.7     2.6     1.2     2.1     2.1     2.0 |    2.1 |
 Denmark                         |    1.0     2.0     0.3     0.5     0.5     0.5 |    0.8 |
 Finland                         |    1.5     1.6     1.6     1.7     1.3     1.5 |    1.5 |
 Netherlands                     |    2.4     0.0     1.2     9.5     2.0     2.0 |    2.8 |
 Norway                          |    1.4     2.3     2.1     2.3     2.5     4.1 |    2.4 |
 Sweden                          |    0.8     0.3     0.1     0.9     0.5     0.7 |    0.5 |
 Switzerland                     |    1.4     1.2     0.8     0.7     0.8     0.8 |    0.9 |
 Australia                       |    3.6     4.0     4.0     4.0     4.0     4.0 |    3.9 |
 Greece                          |   -2.3     6.5     2.0    -0.2     1.0     0.7 |    1.2 |
 Iceland                         |    3.3     2.8     3.5     3.0     2.5     2.5 |    2.9 |
 Ireland                         |    2.4     3.4     4.4     4.2     2.8     2.8 |    3.3 |
 Nzealand                        |    2.0     4.0     3.0     3.2     3.0     3.0 |    3.0 |
 Portugal                        |    0.3     1.2     1.5     1.0     1.2     1.2 |    1.1 |
 Spain                           |    3.9     4.9     4.7     3.7     3.1     3.3 |    3.9 |
                                 |                                                         |
   Eastern Europe + former USSR  |                                                         |
 Hungary                         |    5.0     3.0     1.0     2.0     2.0     2.0 |    2.5 |
 Poland                          |    0.1     0.5     1.7     1.7     2.9     2.4 |    1.5 |
 Bulgaria                        |    6.0     5.0     4.0     4.0     4.0     4.0 |    4.5 |
                                 |                                                         |
   Developing countries          |                                                         |
     and  regions                |                                                         |
 Argentina                       |    1.5     2.7     4.5     2.5     2.5     2.5 |    2.7 |
 Brazil                          |    1.0     0.1     2.8     3.2     2.6     2.2 |    2.0 |
 Chile                           |    2.1     3.0     4.2     3.0     4.0     3.5 |    3.3 |
 Colombia                        |    0.6     3.3     3.5     2.5     1.5     2.0 |    2.2 |
 Ecuador                         |    1.1     2.8     2.4     2.4     1.0     1.5 |    1.9 |
 Mexico                          |    0.8    -1.2     0.8     3.5    -0.3     3.4 |    1.2 |
 Peru                            |    3.8     4.0     7.0     4.0     1.0     2.5 |    3.7 |
 Venezuela                       |    5.7    13.9    13.1    12.1     6.2     2.5 |    8.8 |
 Bolivia                         |    2.5     2.0     2.0     2.1     2.1     2.1 |    2.1 |
 Paraguay                        |   -7.0    -1.5     1.0     2.0     2.0     2.0 |   -0.3 |
 Uruguay                         |    2.8     2.7     2.7     2.6     2.5     2.5 |    2.6 |
 Caribbean                       |    2.8     2.8     2.7     2.7     2.7     2.7 |    2.7 |
 Algeria                         |    3.5     6.0     7.5     8.0     6.0     6.0 |    6.2 |
 Gabon                           |    1.3     2.5     1.2     1.2     1.2     1.2 |    1.4 |
 Morocco                         |    5.0     5.5     4.0     5.0     5.0     5.0 |    4.9 |
 Ethiopia                        |    3.8     4.5     3.9     3.8     3.6     3.5 |    3.8 |
 Kenya                           |    4.0     5.6     3.5     4.8     5.0     5.4 |    4.7 |
 Sudan                           |    7.0    -2.5   -10.8    17.7    -2.3     7.5 |    2.4 |
 Tunisia                         |    4.8     4.0     4.1     4.2     4.2     4.2 |    4.2 |
 Libya                           |   12.0    11.0     9.0     5.0     5.0     5.0 |    7.8 |
 Nigeria                         |    2.5     1.1     3.5     4.5     4.0     4.0 |    3.3 |
 Egypt                           |    5.3     5.4     5.0     4.0     4.0     4.0 |    4.6 |
 Other African Ctry              |    4.2     4.3     4.5     5.0     4.5     4.5 |    4.5 |
 African Least Dev.              |    4.2     4.3     4.1     4.1     4.1     4.1 |    4.1 |
 Iran                            |    4.0     3.8     3.7     3.5     3.4     3.3 |    3.6 |
 Iraq                            |  -35.0    30.0    10.0     5.5     5.5     5.5 |    1.5 |
 Kuwait                          |    5.3     5.5     5.0     5.0     5.0     5.0 |    5.1 |
 Saudi Arabia                    |    3.2     5.0     8.0     6.0     3.0     2.0 |    4.5 |
 W. Asia Oil Imp.                |    3.6     3.6     3.6     3.6     3.6     3.6 |    3.6 |
 Indonesia                       |    9.8     2.5     1.5     5.5     5.5     5.5 |    5.0 |
 Taiwan                          |    0.7    -0.7     0.5     0.4     0.1     0.1 |    0.2 |
 Hong-Kong                       |    0.5     0.7    -0.6     0.0     1.5     1.5 |    0.6 |
 India                           |    2.0     4.4     5.1     5.4     5.6     5.7 |    4.7 |
 Korea                           |    3.7     3.3     3.9     4.0     4.0     4.0 |    3.8 |
 Malaysia                        |   10.0     6.0     6.0     3.5     4.5     4.5 |    5.7 |
 Pakistan                        |    4.6     2.2     4.2     3.7     3.7     4.0 |    3.7 |
 Philippines                     |    0.5     0.0     3.5     3.2     3.2     3.2 |    2.3 |
 Singapore                       |   -2.2    -1.6     3.5     3.0     1.9     1.9 |    1.1 |
 Thailand                        |    2.0     4.0    11.0     9.5     9.5     9.5 |    7.5 |
 Other S.E. Asia                 |    2.4     2.4     2.3     2.2     2.2     2.2 |    2.3 |
 S.E. Asia Least Dev.            |    3.9     3.8    -7.2     0.0     0.0     0.0 |    0.0 |
 Turkey                          |   -2.4     0.5     5.2     9.7     5.1     4.4 |    3.7 |
 Cyprus & Malta                  |    3.4     3.4     3.4   -10.8     0.0     0.0 |   -0.2 |
 South Africa                    |    6.3     7.2     8.5     8.0     0.7     3.8 |    5.7 |
 Israel                          |   -0.6    -1.3     2.8     0.4     1.3     1.4 |    0.7 |
 ———————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————


Interest Rates

 —————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————
 Industrialized countries  |  2002    2003    2004    2005    2006    2007    2008  | Mean   |
 —————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————
 Australia                 |    4.7     4.9     5.5     5.7     5.5     5.2     5.2 |    5.2 |
 Canada                    |    2.7     2.9     2.3     2.8     3.7     4.9     5.3 |    3.5 |
 Denmark                   |    3.6     2.3     2.1     2.1     2.1     2.5     3.0 |    2.5 |
 Greece                    |    7.3     6.8     6.8     6.0     6.2     7.0     7.2 |    6.8 |
 Iceland                   |    8.0     5.6     6.1     9.6    11.0     9.7     9.7 |    8.5 |
 Japan                     |    1.9     1.8     1.8     1.7     1.7     1.9     2.1 |    1.8 |
 Nzealand                  |    6.7     7.0     7.2     7.4     7.7     7.9     8.2 |    7.4 |
 Sweden                    |    3.8     2.8     2.0     1.5     2.3     3.5     3.8 |    2.8 |
 Switzerland               |    0.9     0.2     0.4     0.7     1.5     1.9     2.2 |    1.1 |
 U.K.                      |    3.8     3.5     4.4     4.5     4.1     4.0     4.3 |    4.1 |
 U.S.                      |    1.6     1.0     1.6     3.0     4.3     4.3     4.3 |    2.9 |
 Euro                      |    3.3     2.3     2.1     2.1     2.1     2.5     3.0 |    2.5 |
 —————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————


 
Exchange rates, local currency/$

 ——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————
                                 |  2003    2004    2005    2006    2007    2008  |
 ——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————
                                 |             ***  Average annual rates  ***     |
   Industrialized countries      |                                                |
 Canada                          |   1.40    1.30    1.22    1.24    1.23    1.22 |
 Euro                            |   0.89    0.80    0.80    0.82    0.79    0.76 |
 Japan                           | 115.93  108.20  108.00  110.00  110.00  110.00 |
 U.K.                            |   0.61    0.55    0.55    0.56    0.54    0.51 |
 Denmark                         |   6.59    5.99    5.95    6.11    5.91    5.68 |
 Netherlands                     |   1.95    1.77    1.76    1.81    1.75    1.68 |
 Norway                          |   7.08    6.74    6.39    6.20    6.27    6.37 |
 Sweden                          |   8.09    7.35    7.29    7.48    7.24    6.96 |
 Switzerland                     |   1.35    1.24    1.24    1.27    1.23    1.18 |
 Australia                       |   1.55    1.38    1.34    1.36    1.37    1.38 |
 Iceland                         |  76.71   69.66   69.29   71.07   68.81   66.12 |
 Nzealand                        |   1.77    1.71    1.68    1.68    1.68    1.68 |
                                 |
   Eastern Europe + former USSR  |
 Hungary                         | 254.30  253.90  248.90  247.40  246.20  246.20 |
 Poland                          |   3.90    3.57    3.40    3.49    3.50    3.52 |
 Russia                          |  30.70   28.90   28.10   28.60   29.20   30.10 |
 Bulgaria                        |1730.00 1580.00 1600.00 1630.00 1720.00 1800.00 |
 ——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————


 
Exchange rates, local currency/$

 ————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————
                           |  2003    2004    2005    2006    2007    2008  |
 ————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————
                           |             ***  Average annual rates  ***
   Developing countries    |
      and regions          |
 Argentina                 |    2.9     2.9     2.9     2.9     2.9     3.0 |
 Brazil                    |    3.1     2.9     2.4     2.6     2.6     2.7 |
 Chile                     |  691.4   609.4   565.0   544.0   544.0   535.0 |
 Colombia                  | 2878.0  2626.0  2332.0  2357.0  2454.0  2573.0 |
 Ecuador                   |25000.0 25000.0 25000.0 25000.0 25000.0 25000.0 |
 Mexico                    |   10.8    11.3    11.0    11.8    12.5    12.9 |
 Peru                      | 3500.0  3400.0  3260.0  3250.0  3240.0  3240.0 |
 Venezuela                 | 1609.0  1880.0  2102.0  2150.0  2342.0  2700.0 |
 Bolivia                   |    7.7     7.9     8.1     8.3     8.6     8.6 |
 Paraguay                  | 6424.0  5975.0  6158.0  6191.0  6495.0  6495.0 |
 Uruguay                   |   28.2    28.7    24.9    24.5    23.9    23.9 |
 Algeria                   |   77.4    72.1    71.7    70.5    69.3    72.3 |
 Gabon                     |  579.3   528.2   524.0   536.9   519.9   500.0 |
 Morocco                   |   10.0     9.3     9.2     9.0     9.0     9.0 |
 Ethiopia                  |    9.4     9.8    10.2    10.5    10.8    11.1 |
 Kenya                     |   75.9    79.2    76.4    79.4    84.3    85.1 |
 Sudan                     |  261.1   257.9   248.0   240.5   247.7   239.0 |
 Tunisia                   |    1.3     1.2     1.3     1.3     1.3     1.3 |
 Libya                     |    1.8     1.8     1.8     1.7     1.7     1.7 |
 Nigeria                   |  140.7   144.7   144.4   146.3   151.4   156.9 |
 Egypt                     |    5.8     6.2     5.8     5.7     5.8     5.9 |
 Iran                      | 8282.0  8725.1  9040.0  9379.0  9730.7 10294.2 |
 Iraq                      |    0.3     0.3     0.3     0.3     0.3     0.3 |
 Kuwait                    |    0.3     0.3     0.3     0.3     0.3     0.3 |
 Saudi Arabia              |    3.7     3.7     3.7     3.7     3.7     3.7 |
 Indonesia                 | 8577.1  8920.2  9633.8 10115.5 10621.3 11152.3 |
 Taiwan                    |   34.4    33.4    32.3    31.7    31.7    31.8 |
 Hong-Kong                 |    7.7     7.7     7.7     7.7     7.7     7.7 |
 India                     |   46.6    45.3    44.7    45.0    45.5    45.8 |
 Korea                     | 1191.9  1150.2  1092.7  1098.1  1103.6  1109.1 |
 Malaysia                  |    3.8     3.8     3.8     3.8     3.8     3.8 |
 Pakistan                  |   57.8    57.9    59.9    59.9    60.0    60.1 |
 Philippines               |   54.4    56.2    55.5    56.5    56.5    56.5 |
 Singapore                 |    1.7     1.7     1.6     1.6     1.6     1.6 |
 Thailand                  |   41.5    40.2    40.0    40.8    41.7    42.5 |
 China                     |    8.3     8.3     8.1     8.1     8.1     8.1 |
 South Africa              |    7.6     6.4     6.4     6.5     6.7     6.9 |
 Israel                    |    4.5     4.5     4.5     4.7     4.8     4.8 |
 ————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————


 
Exchange rates, local currency/$

 ————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————
                                 |  2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008 |
 ————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————
                                 |             ***  Annual change   ***
   Industrialized countries      |
 Canada                          | -10.8   -7.1   -6.1    1.4   -0.7   -1.3 |
 Germany                         | -16.6   -9.2   -0.5    2.6   -3.2   -3.9 |
 Japan                           |  -7.5   -6.7   -0.2    1.9    0.0    0.0 |
 U.K.                            |  -8.2  -10.8    0.2    2.5   -3.9   -4.8 |
 Denmark                         | -16.5   -9.2   -0.5    2.6   -3.2   -3.9 |
 Netherlands                     | -16.6   -9.2   -0.5    2.6   -3.2   -3.9 |
 Norway                          | -11.3   -4.8   -5.2   -2.9    1.0    1.7 |
 Sweden                          | -17.0   -9.1   -0.7    2.6   -3.2   -3.9 |
 Switzerland                     | -13.6   -7.7   -0.6    2.6   -3.2   -3.9 |
 Australia                       | -16.8  -10.4   -3.0    1.0    1.0    1.0 |
 Iceland                         | -16.3   -9.2   -0.5    2.6   -3.2   -3.9 |
 Nzealand                        | -18.1   -3.4   -1.8    0.0    0.0    0.0 |
                                 |
   Eastern Europe + former USSR  |
 Hungary                         |   4.3   -0.2   -2.0   -0.6   -0.5    0.0 |
 Poland                          |  -4.8   -8.3   -4.7    2.5    0.5    0.6 |
 Romania                         |  24.5  -20.7   -6.3   10.4    2.0    6.3 |
 Russia                          |  -1.9   -5.9   -2.8    1.8    2.1    3.1 |
 Bulgaria                        | -16.8   -8.7    1.3    1.9    5.5    4.7 |
                                 |                                          |
   Developing countries          |                                          |
      and regions                |                                          |
 Argentina                       |  -6.5    0.0   -1.0    0.3    2.4    2.4 |
 Brazil                          |   6.9   -6.5  -16.2    5.8    2.3    3.4 |
 Chile                           |   0.4  -11.9   -7.3   -3.7    0.0   -1.7 |
 Colombia                        |  14.8   -8.8  -11.2    1.1    4.1    4.8 |
 Ecuador                         |   0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0 |
 Mexico                          |  11.7    4.5   -2.6    7.7    5.5    3.2 |
 Peru                            |   0.0   -2.9   -4.1   -0.3   -0.3    0.0 |
 Venezuela                       |  38.6   16.8   11.8    2.3    8.9   15.3 |
 Bolivia                         |   6.8    3.8    2.0    2.7    3.2    0.0 |
 Paraguay                        |  12.3   -7.0    3.1    0.5    4.9    0.0 |
 Uruguay                         |  32.6    1.8  -13.2   -1.6   -2.4    0.0 |
 Algeria                         |  -2.9   -6.8   -0.6   -1.7   -1.7    4.3 |
 Gabon                           | -16.9   -8.8   -0.8    2.5   -3.2   -3.8 |
 Morocco                         |  -9.3   -7.4   -0.9   -1.6    0.0    0.0 |
 Ethiopia                        |   1.6    4.0    3.8    2.9    2.9    2.8 |
 Kenya                           |  -3.6    4.3   -3.5    3.9    6.2    0.9 |
 Sudan                           |  -0.8   -1.2   -3.8   -3.0    3.0   -3.5 |
 Tunisia                         |  -9.2   -3.3    2.6   -2.1    0.0    0.0 |
 Libya                           |  37.8    0.9    0.0   -0.9    0.0    0.0 |
 Nigeria                         |   7.2    2.8   -0.2    1.3    3.5    3.6 |
 Egypt                           |  29.8    6.2   -6.8   -1.4    2.1    2.2 |
 Iran                            |   4.1    5.3    3.6    3.7    3.7    5.8 |
 Iraq                            |   0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0 |
 Kuwait                          |  -2.1   -0.9    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0 |
 Saudi Arabia                    |   0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0 |
 Indonesia                       |  -7.9    4.0    8.0    5.0    5.0    5.0 |
 Taiwan                          |  -0.5   -2.9   -3.3   -2.0    0.2    0.1 |
 Hong-Kong                       |   0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0 |
 India                           |  -4.2   -2.7   -1.3    0.6    1.1    0.7 |
 Korea                           |  -4.7   -3.5   -5.0    0.5    0.5    0.5 |
 Malaysia                        |   0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0 |
 Pakistan                        |  -3.3    0.2    3.5    0.1    0.1    0.1 |
 Philippines                     |   5.4    3.3   -1.2    1.8    0.0    0.0 |
 Singapore                       |  -5.6   -2.5   -1.5    0.0    0.0    0.0 |
 Thailand                        |  -3.4   -3.0   -0.5    2.0    2.0    2.0 |
 China                           |   0.0    0.0   -2.1    0.0    0.0    0.0 |
 Turkey                          |  -5.7   -4.0   -2.3    0.5    1.7    2.2 |
 South Africa                    | -28.1  -14.7   -0.8    2.0    2.7    3.5 |
 Israel                          |  -4.0   -1.5   -0.2    5.3    0.9    0.0 |
 ————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————


Change of "Real" Exchange Rates
(Rates of change in exchange rates adjusted for inflation relative to U.S.)


 ——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————
                                 |  2003    2004    2005    2006    2007    2008  |
 ——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————
                                 |    *** Annual "Real" Depreciation Rates ***    |
   Industrialized countries      |                                                |
 Canada                          |  -10.6    -6.0    -4.6     2.0    -0.1    -0.8 |
 Germany                         |  -15.9    -8.1     1.1     3.3    -2.5    -3.2 |
 Japan                           |   -4.9    -3.6     3.2     4.1     2.1     2.1 |
 U.K.                            |   -8.2    -9.5     1.7     3.3    -3.2    -4.1 |
 Denmark                         |  -16.5    -8.2     0.8     3.2    -2.4    -3.3 |
 Netherlands                     |  -17.0    -7.8     0.9     3.3    -2.5    -3.3 |
 Norway                          |  -12.0    -2.7    -3.6    -2.7     1.3     1.8 |
 Sweden                          |  -17.0    -7.0     2.0     4.0    -2.8    -3.4 |
 Switzerland                     |  -12.4    -6.2     1.6     5.2    -0.6    -2.0 |
 Australia                       |  -17.1   -10.1    -2.2     0.6     0.5     0.3 |
 Iceland                         |  -16.6    -9.9    -1.5     1.0    -5.7    -5.6 |
 Nzealand                        |  -18.0    -3.6    -1.4    -0.6    -0.1    -0.1 |
                                 |                                                |
   Eastern Europe + former USSR  |                                                |
 Hungary                         |    1.3    -4.3    -2.2     0.3    -1.0    -0.7 |
 Poland                          |   -4.0    -9.5    -3.7     2.5     0.5     0.9 |
 Romania                         |    3.9   -34.6   -12.5     4.7    -2.9     2.5 |
 Russia                          |  -16.8   -21.5   -11.5    -3.3    -1.3    -4.7 |
 Bulgaria                        |  -17.3   -12.3    -0.3    -1.9     2.8     2.6 |
                                 |                                                |
 Developing countries            |                                                |
    and regions                  |                                                |
 Brazil                          |   -6.3   -13.0   -20.0     3.2     2.6     1.7 |
 Chile                           |   -0.6    -9.7    -4.2    -2.9     0.0    -1.4 |
 Colombia                        |    5.2   -17.5   -18.1    -4.5    -1.7    -1.2 |
 Mexico                          |    6.6     2.3    -3.3     6.3     4.0     1.4 |
 Peru                            |   -0.7    -3.9    -2.8    -0.6    -0.6    -0.2 |
 Venezuela                       |    9.3    -2.4    -1.3   -10.6    -3.6     0.8 |
 Bolivia                         |    9.0     5.1     3.9     4.2     5.9     2.5 |
 Algeria                         |   -6.6    -8.1     0.5    -2.3    -2.4     3.6 |
 Gabon                           |  -16.6    -8.1     1.3     3.9    -1.8    -2.5 |
 Morocco                         |  -10.7    -7.0     0.2    -1.3     0.2     0.2 |
 Ethiopia                        |   -8.1    -5.0    -4.6    -4.0    -3.3    -2.8 |
 Kenya                           |  -10.3    -3.7    -0.4     6.3     8.5    -0.3 |
 Sudan                           |    4.1   -15.9     1.0    -7.6     2.5    -7.3 |
 Tunisia                         |  -12.4    -5.8     0.7    -4.7    -2.7    -2.7 |
 Libya                           |   28.3   -10.6    -9.3    -4.5    -2.7    -2.7 |
 Nigeria                         |    8.1     5.6     3.3     6.3     8.1     6.9 |
 Egypt                           |   27.5     3.2   -10.6    -5.0    -0.8    -0.7 |
 Indonesia                       |  -12.8     0.7     2.7    -1.6    -1.7    -1.7 |
 Taiwan                          |    3.5     1.5     0.6    -0.2     1.6     1.5 |
 Hong-Kong                       |    4.3     2.9     2.1     0.0    -0.1    -0.1 |
 India                           |   -6.3    -5.5    -3.8    -2.2    -0.7    -1.1 |
 Korea                           |   -3.3    -1.1    -2.9     0.5    -0.1    -0.6 |
 Malaysia                        |    0.5     0.9     0.9     0.2     0.1     0.1 |
 Pakistan                        |  -21.8    -9.4    -8.2   -13.7   -14.9   -10.5 |
 Philippines                     |    4.1    -0.2    -5.9    -4.1    -2.2    -2.2 |
 Singapore                       |   -3.3    -0.9     0.8     1.5     1.4     1.4 |
 Thailand                        |   -3.7    -1.5     0.4     2.1     2.1     2.0 |
 China                           |    0.6    -1.4    -1.9    -0.8    -0.9    -0.9 |
 Turkey                          |  -25.6    -9.6    -6.5    -6.3    -4.3    -2.2 |
 South Africa                    |  -29.3   -15.2    -0.6     1.4     2.0     2.8 |
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Prices of commodities

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    Commodities                  |  2003    2004    2005    2006    2007    2008  |
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                                 |              ***  Annual growth rates  ***
    Wheat                        |   -1.4     7.4    -3.5     3.0     2.1     2.1 |
    Maize                        |    6.1     6.1   -15.0     8.0    -0.9    -0.9 |
    Rice                         |    3.0    20.3    19.0    -4.5     9.0     8.2 |
    Cocoa                        |   -1.5   -11.5     0.5     4.2    -2.6    -2.7 |
    Coffee                       |    4.3    25.4    12.3     4.1    10.6     9.6 |
    Tea                          |    0.7    11.1     4.5     1.0     4.9     4.7 |
    Sugar                        |    3.0     1.0    25.0     5.0     8.2     7.6 |
    Banana                       |  -29.0    40.0    13.8     2.9    13.0    11.5 |
    Beef                         |   -5.9    26.9     5.0    -5.0     7.0     6.5 |
    Soyabean meal                |   20.4    14.4    -9.5    -4.5    -0.4    -0.4 |
    Tobacco                      |   -3.6     3.6    -2.0     3.0     1.5     1.4 |
    Coconut oil                  |   11.0    41.4    -6.0    -6.0     6.7     6.2 |
    Copra                        |   12.6    50.1    -4.0    -3.0     9.5     8.7 |
    Groundnut oil                |   80.9    -6.6    -5.0    -6.0    -6.6    -7.1 |
    Palm Kernel                  |   10.3    41.2    -4.2    -6.0     7.1     6.6 |
    Palm oil                     |   13.6     6.3   -12.0    -4.0    -3.8    -3.9 |
    Olive oil                    |   30.9    22.0     4.0     2.0     7.6     7.0 |
    Soybeans                     |   24.1    16.1   -12.0    -6.0    -1.4    -1.4 |
    Soyabean oil                 |   21.9    11.2   -13.9    -2.5    -2.4    -2.4 |
    Animal fats                  |   19.2    -4.2    12.0     5.0     3.7     3.6 |
    Hides                        |   27.6     2.3    -1.0     0.5     0.6     0.6 |
    Cotton                       |   37.3    -2.4   -12.5     4.1    -4.2    -4.3 |
    Jute                         |   19.1    15.9    18.9     1.4     9.5     8.7 |
    Sisal                        |    5.8    23.5     2.7     5.0     8.3     7.7 |
    Wool                         |   14.9     0.4     7.7     4.1     3.7     3.6 |
    Flax                         |   27.6     2.5   -20.8     3.5    -6.3    -6.8 |
    Rubber                       |   41.6    20.4     8.1    -3.6     6.8     6.3 |
    Logs(sapelli)                |    0.0     3.4     1.5     3.0     2.5     2.4 |
    Wood pulp                    |   16.2    21.9     3.2     2.5     7.5     7.0 |
    Copper                       |   14.1    61.1     5.0   -15.0    10.1     9.2 |
    Lead                         |   13.7    72.2     7.0   -10.0    13.2    11.7 |
    Tin                          |   20.5    73.9     0.0    -5.0    13.2    11.6 |
    Zinc                         |    6.3    26.6    20.0     2.0    11.8    10.6 |
    Nickel                       |   42.2    43.6    10.0    -5.0    11.1    10.0 |
    Iron ore                     |    9.2    18.4    70.0    -5.0    15.9    13.7 |
    Bauxite                      |   -5.0    15.8     6.0     2.0     6.7     6.3 |
    Aluminum                     |    6.0    19.9     7.0    -7.0     5.4     5.1 |
    Manganese ore                |    4.8    15.8     6.0     2.0     6.7     6.3 |
    Phosphate                    |   -5.9     7.9     2.4     0.0     3.2     3.1 |
    Oil price                    |   15.5    33.0    48.8     8.8     0.0     0.0 |
    Def. of SITC 0+1  1          |   30.7    13.5     2.2     1.5     2.2     2.2 |
    Def. of SITC 2+4  1          |   26.6    16.4     5.4    -1.3     1.7     1.9 |
    Def. of SITC 5-9  1          |   19.0     5.2     0.7    -0.9     1.4     1.8 |
    Def. of SITC 0-9  1          |   18.5     8.1     4.5    -0.1     0.9     1.3 |
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